A United Ireland Plebiscite Should Not Transform Into 'A Repeat of Brexit', Analysts Warn

A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."